Model monitor
Moonshot Kimi K2.5
moonshotai/kimi-k2.5 · via openrouter
As of 2026-08-23: 1 of 5 task families in alarm · no public alarm in 4 of 5 task families · 2178 complete panels behind the record.
Certified claim, per family: H0: E[panel_mean_t | prior completed panels] ≥ frozen_null_floor. Fixed panel composition does not assume or establish temporal independence. Recent panels below link to their hash-committed evidence.
Task family
Structured output
- Frozen null floor
- 0.700
- Anytime level α
- 0.050
- Completed panels
- 418
- CS lower
- 0.721
- CS upper
- 0.777
Limited history: the chart is capped; current counts and confidence bounds are not.
Panel record — 418 completed panels
| Cycle | Completed | Member scores | Mean | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 460 | 2026-08-23 13:47 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 4700d469209a… |
| 459 | 2026-08-23 12:47 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | dc78d542bc42… |
| 458 | 2026-08-23 11:50 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 10d0cdfb4fd7… |
| 457 | 2026-08-23 10:45 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | f1f94430ac50… |
| 456 | 2026-08-23 09:37 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 5cd20fb300e0… |
| 455 | 2026-08-23 08:37 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | ef8d84bb17c3… |
| 454 | 2026-08-23 07:39 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 1818d8909ed9… |
| 453 | 2026-08-23 06:34 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 5a75bd0ea310… |
| 452 | 2026-08-23 05:35 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 5cb4d2969eec… |
| 451 | 2026-08-23 04:33 UTC | 1.001.001.001.001.00 | 1.000 | 302224ba4b27… |
| 450 | 2026-08-23 03:25 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | c391e9f2f050… |
| 449 | 2026-08-23 02:24 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 62a995dd2ea7… |
| 448 | 2026-08-23 01:26 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | ac9fa6c4c235… |
| 447 | 2026-08-23 00:17 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | d7c3eb107f76… |
| 446 | 2026-08-22 23:15 UTC | 0.00 rate limited0.00 rate limited0.00 rate limited0.00 rate limited0.00 rate limited | 0.000 | cc1e45b68a97… |
| 445 | 2026-08-22 22:10 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 1328dad5a82b… |
| 444 | 2026-08-22 21:04 UTC | 1.001.001.001.001.00 | 1.000 | 00a3c57e33e7… |
| 443 | 2026-08-22 20:02 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | ed859b0c9532… |
| 442 | 2026-08-22 19:01 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | c074fc6e7aea… |
| 441 | 2026-08-22 17:55 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 51ee5ae3242d… |
| 440 | 2026-08-22 16:52 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 52e13e8a0280… |
| 439 | 2026-08-22 15:49 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | a681122c759c… |
| 438 | 2026-08-22 14:51 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated | 0.600 | 67a65fe0c95a… |
| 437 | 2026-08-22 13:49 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 30b3c4643668… |
| 436 | 2026-08-22 12:50 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | c282c9ad9325… |
| 435 | 2026-08-22 11:48 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 0e28d3035e1a… |
| 434 | 2026-08-22 10:42 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 10e5931ff7e2… |
| 433 | 2026-08-22 09:42 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 87063ee05dc5… |
| 432 | 2026-08-22 08:44 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated | 0.600 | 530f51b0f76c… |
| 431 | 2026-08-22 07:36 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 9a831ce1bffb… |
Newest first; older panels are retained and replayable even where this table truncates. A failed member scores 0 and stays on the record. Each evidence link opens the panel’s full hash-committed record.
Epoch & design record
- Current epoch
4bf2bb89-7823-44ce-98ec-289f3fdc20c8- Opened
- 2026-08-05 12:27 UTC
- Previous epoch
9ace9483-a2c0-48b1-8a4f-92c4d2f72d23- Transition
- checker_refresh
- Design hash
8a4f5431d708d308ccd859fc31d097a5db0297535ace2795cab39b5f087eb318- Panel hash
a37ad21aa4b8c3e16dbae958c68a70064a9d95487e131d832f2c601f7fdacf14- Pool hash
8e9496011afbb949e38b3facc664e6dd560f1c5d2155fd424fcb720d084c69ee- Panel size
- 5
- Terminal failure
- zero — a failed member scores 0 and stays on the record
- Pool version
structured-output-v3- Checker version
structured_output-v2- Reference mean μ₀
- 0.700
- Minimum effect δ
- 0.000
- Evidence log e
- -0.28 · max 0.00 · alarm at 3.00 (= ln 1/α)
- Raw scores kept
- 1580
- Provider spend, this epoch
- $5.595032
The persisted monitor state is the authority a certificate replays byte-for-byte; the chart band above is a faithful replay of the same recorded panel means. Spend sums completed probe runs and includes reserved estimates where a run’s true cost was unrecoverable.
Task family
Extraction
- Frozen null floor
- 0.700
- Anytime level α
- 0.050
- Completed panels
- 418
- CS lower
- 0.662
- CS upper
- 0.717
Limited history: the chart is capped; current counts and confidence bounds are not.
Panel record — 418 completed panels
| Cycle | Completed | Member scores | Mean | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 460 | 2026-08-23 13:44 UTC | 1.000.00 truncated1.000.001.00 | 0.600 | e45cea9dd7b6… |
| 459 | 2026-08-23 12:43 UTC | 1.001.001.000.001.00 | 0.800 | 500d88b9be8d… |
| 458 | 2026-08-23 11:43 UTC | 1.001.001.000.001.00 | 0.800 | ab0f3d5376df… |
| 457 | 2026-08-23 10:41 UTC | 1.001.001.000.001.00 | 0.800 | 8654af712dd3… |
| 456 | 2026-08-23 09:35 UTC | 1.001.001.000.001.00 | 0.800 | df2ead0690a5… |
| 455 | 2026-08-23 08:35 UTC | 1.001.001.000.001.00 | 0.800 | 5389733e48ba… |
| 454 | 2026-08-23 07:34 UTC | 1.001.001.000.001.00 | 0.800 | 0c142ba5f7a6… |
| 453 | 2026-08-23 06:31 UTC | 1.001.001.000.001.00 | 0.800 | 12c3fdf7993b… |
| 452 | 2026-08-23 05:31 UTC | 1.001.001.000.001.00 | 0.800 | c7b45aac31a6… |
| 451 | 2026-08-23 04:29 UTC | 1.001.001.000.001.00 | 0.800 | 10a6423d9e8b… |
| 450 | 2026-08-23 03:22 UTC | 1.000.671.000.001.00 | 0.733 | a35bd1020f5b… |
| 449 | 2026-08-23 02:22 UTC | 1.001.001.000.001.00 | 0.800 | 96c72486aba1… |
| 448 | 2026-08-23 01:22 UTC | 1.001.001.000.001.00 | 0.800 | 73e1380f71b4… |
| 447 | 2026-08-23 00:16 UTC | 1.000.00 truncated1.000.001.00 | 0.600 | f86012c5ee79… |
| 446 | 2026-08-22 23:15 UTC | 1.001.001.000.001.00 | 0.800 | 8444dbb387f4… |
| 445 | 2026-08-22 22:09 UTC | 1.001.001.000.001.00 | 0.800 | 7d70046f9153… |
| 444 | 2026-08-22 21:04 UTC | 1.001.001.000.001.00 | 0.800 | 801f122e5e46… |
| 443 | 2026-08-22 20:01 UTC | 1.001.001.000.001.00 | 0.800 | 917dd75e2970… |
| 442 | 2026-08-22 18:59 UTC | 1.000.00 truncated1.000.001.00 | 0.600 | e0826a3e303d… |
| 441 | 2026-08-22 17:54 UTC | 1.001.001.000.001.00 | 0.800 | c53d6dc7c3f6… |
| 440 | 2026-08-22 16:50 UTC | 1.001.001.000.001.00 | 0.800 | 997829cffe03… |
| 439 | 2026-08-22 15:49 UTC | 1.001.001.000.001.00 | 0.800 | ce1bc8d29018… |
| 438 | 2026-08-22 14:49 UTC | 1.000.671.000.001.00 | 0.733 | 524a6f7e8ebf… |
| 437 | 2026-08-22 13:47 UTC | 1.001.001.000.001.00 | 0.800 | 27df151887da… |
| 436 | 2026-08-22 12:47 UTC | 1.000.00 truncated1.000.001.00 | 0.600 | 4bfb5ada8d36… |
| 435 | 2026-08-22 11:47 UTC | 1.001.001.000.001.00 | 0.800 | 29d154b79d28… |
| 434 | 2026-08-22 10:41 UTC | 1.001.001.000.001.00 | 0.800 | df0ac6a3ba51… |
| 433 | 2026-08-22 09:41 UTC | 1.001.001.000.001.00 | 0.800 | a7aed79ae65d… |
| 432 | 2026-08-22 08:42 UTC | 1.000.00 truncated1.000.001.00 | 0.600 | 6e02d24c2761… |
| 431 | 2026-08-22 07:35 UTC | 1.001.001.000.001.00 | 0.800 | f3a045317bcf… |
Newest first; older panels are retained and replayable even where this table truncates. A failed member scores 0 and stays on the record. Each evidence link opens the panel’s full hash-committed record.
Epoch & design record
- Current epoch
a6d5277d-57c2-4d96-8d57-7ff3c259283c- Opened
- 2026-08-05 12:27 UTC
- Previous epoch
851d9d2d-1485-4dfd-9184-2b041bc0ff82- Transition
- checker_refresh
- Design hash
a2749265eac9731c94d1b8cada6fedc0e453bbc919053c455268b3a7eb248a61- Panel hash
1703e9221c9ce6ce1a9f69974cf0fd77056ac1ee4009dec47e3e6f23be2d4351- Pool hash
51802fc8964f7d9927bcabfae23b4bd2f0905e8977c9f8fb4ce50884ab0fbba6- Panel size
- 5
- Terminal failure
- zero — a failed member scores 0 and stays on the record
- Pool version
extraction-v3- Checker version
extraction-v2- Reference mean μ₀
- 0.700
- Minimum effect δ
- 0.000
- Evidence log e
- -0.61 · max 2.24 · alarm at 3.00 (= ln 1/α)
- Raw scores kept
- 1841
- Provider spend, this epoch
- $3.3342571
The persisted monitor state is the authority a certificate replays byte-for-byte; the chart band above is a faithful replay of the same recorded panel means. Spend sums completed probe runs and includes reserved estimates where a run’s true cost was unrecoverable.
Task family
Instruction following
- Frozen null floor
- 0.700
- Anytime level α
- 0.050
- Completed panels
- 462
- CS lower
- 0.689
- CS upper
- 0.749
Limited history: the chart is capped; current counts and confidence bounds are not.
Panel record — 462 completed panels
| Cycle | Completed | Member scores | Mean | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 461 | 2026-08-23 13:45 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | 6f06ad6addc2… |
| 460 | 2026-08-23 12:44 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated0.83 | 0.567 | d065790c7356… |
| 459 | 2026-08-23 11:45 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated0.83 | 0.567 | 23866ab60070… |
| 458 | 2026-08-23 10:42 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | c28a761ca171… |
| 457 | 2026-08-23 09:36 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated0.83 | 0.567 | c4e4b79377b9… |
| 456 | 2026-08-23 08:36 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | a1898323cb9b… |
| 455 | 2026-08-23 07:36 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | 81c2115d1c88… |
| 454 | 2026-08-23 06:32 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | 28ed7d044198… |
| 453 | 2026-08-23 05:32 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | 54ddcedfac66… |
| 452 | 2026-08-23 04:30 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | 7b35bb39ca09… |
| 451 | 2026-08-23 03:23 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated0.83 | 0.567 | 44103cfb5e01… |
| 450 | 2026-08-23 02:23 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | b0688e6cbb4b… |
| 449 | 2026-08-23 01:22 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | 8b88a2670923… |
| 448 | 2026-08-23 00:22 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | 7b4fbaef9438… |
| 447 | 2026-08-22 23:22 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated0.00 rate limited0.83 | 0.567 | fd9269530535… |
| 446 | 2026-08-22 22:15 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | 03950204702c… |
| 445 | 2026-08-22 21:10 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | 8f419bf6752c… |
| 444 | 2026-08-22 20:11 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | e23b93cdf0ee… |
| 443 | 2026-08-22 19:08 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | 96e520f479f1… |
| 442 | 2026-08-22 18:01 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | 1b691120b2c3… |
| 441 | 2026-08-22 17:01 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | 7fe946fc439d… |
| 440 | 2026-08-22 15:55 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | 72521002b7e5… |
| 439 | 2026-08-22 14:56 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | 9d3fbd8742a5… |
| 438 | 2026-08-22 13:56 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | fd11ffee3e1c… |
| 437 | 2026-08-22 12:56 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated0.83 | 0.567 | b0beecde981a… |
| 436 | 2026-08-22 11:54 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | 77909978be2e… |
| 435 | 2026-08-22 10:47 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | cb5ebe9ea06c… |
| 434 | 2026-08-22 09:47 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | 607dd40e9006… |
| 433 | 2026-08-22 08:50 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | d3713e4a283f… |
| 432 | 2026-08-22 07:42 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated1.000.83 | 0.767 | 48f5dddf4af8… |
Newest first; older panels are retained and replayable even where this table truncates. A failed member scores 0 and stays on the record. Each evidence link opens the panel’s full hash-committed record.
Epoch & design record
- Current epoch
91d10d90-5b83-4101-8aea-35f16ee28a75- Opened
- 2026-08-03 16:27 UTC
- Design hash
4f5cc6b9ff4ce026ccab93f5a3c8241f78eb005bc8b8068e4c701e9236504412- Panel hash
e7dfea1f343f7bf37e066a1117ca21f3438e804ad61437bf72d810640cef7e71- Pool hash
9c5d065322394a6fb18c6d7f90c5bb63f00781f3e4c4aaa663536f76bb8ba7f9- Panel size
- 5
- Terminal failure
- zero — a failed member scores 0 and stays on the record
- Pool version
instruction_following-v3- Checker version
instruction_following-v1- Reference mean μ₀
- 0.700
- Minimum effect δ
- 0.000
- Evidence log e
- -0.69 · max 1.02 · alarm at 3.00 (= ln 1/α)
- Raw scores kept
- 1740
- Provider spend, this epoch
- $5.0317909
The persisted monitor state is the authority a certificate replays byte-for-byte; the chart band above is a faithful replay of the same recorded panel means. Spend sums completed probe runs and includes reserved estimates where a run’s true cost was unrecoverable.
Task family
Code reasoning
- Frozen null floor
- 0.700
- Anytime level α
- 0.050
- Completed panels
- 418
- CS lower
- 0.503
- CS upper
- 0.564
Limited history: the chart is capped; current counts and confidence bounds are not.
Panel record — 418 completed panels
| Cycle | Completed | Member scores | Mean | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 460 | 2026-08-23 13:43 UTC | 0.00 truncated1.000.00 truncated1.000.00 truncated | 0.400 | 5ddb2530939d… |
| 459 | 2026-08-23 12:43 UTC | 0.00 truncated1.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated0.00 truncated | 0.200 | fec8b4ac8311… |
| 458 | 2026-08-23 11:42 UTC | 1.001.001.001.000.00 truncated | 0.800 | 36a4ce89e69d… |
| 457 | 2026-08-23 10:40 UTC | 0.00 truncated1.000.00 truncated1.001.00 | 0.600 | e8a6c277d8e1… |
| 456 | 2026-08-23 09:35 UTC | 0.00 truncated1.001.001.000.00 truncated | 0.600 | 159ae1be094d… |
| 455 | 2026-08-23 08:35 UTC | 0.00 truncated1.001.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated | 0.400 | c24886a8deec… |
| 454 | 2026-08-23 07:33 UTC | 0.00 truncated1.001.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated | 0.400 | 3d32fea482dc… |
| 453 | 2026-08-23 06:31 UTC | 0.00 truncated1.000.00 truncated1.000.00 truncated | 0.400 | 07a95485e621… |
| 452 | 2026-08-23 05:30 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated | 0.600 | 3448c9efc0c2… |
| 451 | 2026-08-23 04:28 UTC | 0.00 truncated1.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated0.00 truncated | 0.200 | 46948dde2c65… |
| 450 | 2026-08-23 03:22 UTC | 0.00 truncated1.000.00 truncated1.000.00 truncated | 0.400 | 635915467147… |
| 449 | 2026-08-23 02:22 UTC | 0.00 truncated1.001.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated | 0.400 | 17dde87c0911… |
| 448 | 2026-08-23 01:21 UTC | 0.00 truncated1.001.001.000.00 truncated | 0.600 | 582ffd4463e7… |
| 447 | 2026-08-23 00:21 UTC | 0.00 truncated1.001.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated | 0.400 | 1e411fe80bda… |
| 446 | 2026-08-22 23:20 UTC | 1.001.000.00 rate limited0.00 rate limited0.00 truncated | 0.400 | bcaf2d5ae0c3… |
| 445 | 2026-08-22 22:14 UTC | 0.00 truncated1.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated0.00 truncated | 0.200 | d6de68ae66b6… |
| 444 | 2026-08-22 21:09 UTC | 0.00 truncated1.001.001.000.00 truncated | 0.600 | 0680d4e234ce… |
| 443 | 2026-08-22 20:08 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated | 0.600 | 658c73112a5d… |
| 442 | 2026-08-22 19:06 UTC | 0.00 truncated1.001.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated | 0.400 | e981008c459c… |
| 441 | 2026-08-22 18:00 UTC | 1.001.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated0.00 truncated | 0.400 | ac8f4d2ca9af… |
| 440 | 2026-08-22 17:00 UTC | 0.00 truncated1.000.00 truncated1.000.00 truncated | 0.400 | 069c74597898… |
| 439 | 2026-08-22 15:54 UTC | 0.00 truncated1.001.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated | 0.400 | 3b336842498a… |
| 438 | 2026-08-22 14:55 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated | 0.600 | dd2a292e2415… |
| 437 | 2026-08-22 13:54 UTC | 0.00 truncated1.001.001.000.00 truncated | 0.600 | f3e63f843cb5… |
| 436 | 2026-08-22 12:53 UTC | 0.00 truncated1.001.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated | 0.400 | 9ec85ae452b9… |
| 435 | 2026-08-22 11:52 UTC | 0.00 truncated1.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated0.00 truncated | 0.200 | 504bd13b465e… |
| 434 | 2026-08-22 10:46 UTC | 0.00 truncated1.001.001.000.00 truncated | 0.600 | 8230b8e22890… |
| 433 | 2026-08-22 09:46 UTC | 0.00 truncated1.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated0.00 truncated | 0.200 | dcaabefe97c6… |
| 432 | 2026-08-22 08:47 UTC | 0.00 rate limited0.00 rate limited0.00 rate limited0.00 truncated1.00 | 0.200 | d971edfe1f35… |
| 431 | 2026-08-22 07:41 UTC | 0.00 truncated1.001.001.000.00 truncated | 0.600 | bc32eca533f5… |
Newest first; older panels are retained and replayable even where this table truncates. A failed member scores 0 and stays on the record. Each evidence link opens the panel’s full hash-committed record.
Epoch & design record
- Current epoch
fbac9ea0-9c5d-48d1-8454-df1049493db7- Opened
- 2026-08-05 12:27 UTC
- Previous epoch
2582d56c-7eab-4b5e-b1d1-1314be891eb3- Transition
- checker_refresh
- Design hash
bc3668bd52d9d48803b744c2c90f4ed816d7e394525b32b4219f6bab5c9c6df2- Panel hash
827de544c7641d140ac37e321bdb2578a41e291915f519183abbc5bd68153e81- Pool hash
cbfba66601ff51f43c83017d6de9e49988afcee72235f5dca89d705f4f8bb4cc- Panel size
- 5
- Terminal failure
- zero — a failed member scores 0 and stays on the record
- Pool version
code_reasoning-v4- Checker version
code_reasoning-v2- Reference mean μ₀
- 0.700
- Minimum effect δ
- 0.000
- Evidence log e
- 89.91 · max 89.91 · alarm at 3.00 (= ln 1/α)
- Raw scores kept
- 1110
- Provider spend, this epoch
- $8.084138
The persisted monitor state is the authority a certificate replays byte-for-byte; the chart band above is a faithful replay of the same recorded panel means. Spend sums completed probe runs and includes reserved estimates where a run’s true cost was unrecoverable.
Task family
Math
- Frozen null floor
- 0.700
- Anytime level α
- 0.050
- Completed panels
- 462
- CS lower
- 0.725
- CS upper
- 0.778
Limited history: the chart is capped; current counts and confidence bounds are not.
Panel record — 462 completed panels
| Cycle | Completed | Member scores | Mean | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 461 | 2026-08-23 13:46 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | d76d8de778ab… |
| 460 | 2026-08-23 12:45 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 8d55f445b0c3… |
| 459 | 2026-08-23 11:48 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | fa63a1cd353d… |
| 458 | 2026-08-23 10:44 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 6c7b51cade02… |
| 457 | 2026-08-23 09:37 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | a66ed7102c74… |
| 456 | 2026-08-23 08:37 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 192c0379a0cd… |
| 455 | 2026-08-23 07:37 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 388a20c93433… |
| 454 | 2026-08-23 06:33 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | b757f587834a… |
| 453 | 2026-08-23 05:33 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 92d2de6a86f1… |
| 452 | 2026-08-23 04:32 UTC | 1.001.001.001.001.00 | 1.000 | 1103f8c00636… |
| 451 | 2026-08-23 03:24 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated | 0.600 | c501015676a7… |
| 450 | 2026-08-23 02:23 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 832189884aba… |
| 449 | 2026-08-23 01:24 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | a3fcbf772a8e… |
| 448 | 2026-08-23 00:23 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 8639f62f8955… |
| 447 | 2026-08-22 23:25 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 537fa2c27423… |
| 446 | 2026-08-22 22:16 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 92ac0a64ea8b… |
| 445 | 2026-08-22 21:12 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | bb3fb28f883a… |
| 444 | 2026-08-22 20:13 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated | 0.600 | 062e74caf53a… |
| 443 | 2026-08-22 19:10 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 4fd0184b1852… |
| 442 | 2026-08-22 18:02 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | cad948cd78b7… |
| 441 | 2026-08-22 17:03 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated0.00 rate limited | 0.600 | aa3bc5851c03… |
| 440 | 2026-08-22 15:56 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated | 0.600 | ffa8003e5ed9… |
| 439 | 2026-08-22 14:58 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | a729219dd4d2… |
| 438 | 2026-08-22 13:58 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated | 0.600 | d4da814131a3… |
| 437 | 2026-08-22 12:57 UTC | 1.000.00 rate limited0.00 rate limited0.00 rate limited0.00 rate limited | 0.200 | 60f9d87cb7ad… |
| 436 | 2026-08-22 11:56 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated0.00 truncated | 0.600 | 883e48fe4a4b… |
| 435 | 2026-08-22 10:48 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | afe07b487689… |
| 434 | 2026-08-22 09:48 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | ff0f2fe118a4… |
| 433 | 2026-08-22 08:50 UTC | 0.00 rate limited1.000.00 rate limited0.00 rate limited0.00 rate limited | 0.200 | b3802948f70f… |
| 432 | 2026-08-22 07:43 UTC | 1.001.001.000.00 truncated1.00 | 0.800 | 53e9eade24d4… |
Newest first; older panels are retained and replayable even where this table truncates. A failed member scores 0 and stays on the record. Each evidence link opens the panel’s full hash-committed record.
Epoch & design record
- Current epoch
2a0bd841-48bc-4078-8a50-a0c83dfcf580- Opened
- 2026-08-03 16:27 UTC
- Design hash
fdf94065c55c2ee7d86701efc50be0f5abdc5f02a236f6df52c2ac6f7db801eb- Panel hash
882f3932d07aeb85c4f6406a550d8ad14512e70d3df2432fe7aab03d0508bc75- Pool hash
7ed49fa9a63ba0e0907ff8326de00a843a926618f6d0dec40aa8e491d041e99b- Panel size
- 5
- Terminal failure
- zero — a failed member scores 0 and stays on the record
- Pool version
math-v4- Checker version
math-v1- Reference mean μ₀
- 0.700
- Minimum effect δ
- 0.000
- Evidence log e
- -0.49 · max 0.42 · alarm at 3.00 (= ln 1/α)
- Raw scores kept
- 1738
- Provider spend, this epoch
- $4.6469093
The persisted monitor state is the authority a certificate replays byte-for-byte; the chart band above is a faithful replay of the same recorded panel means. Spend sums completed probe runs and includes reserved estimates where a run’s true cost was unrecoverable.