Certificates
An artifact you check yourself.
When an Actuary monitor alarms on a registered design, it issues a certificate: the design, the data, the computation and the result, signed and frozen into one file. You are not meant to trust it. You are meant to recompute it — offline, with tools you control, getting the same answer or an explanation of why not.
01 Try it
Verify a real certificate in three commands.
This is the certificate from Study 001, the 2026-07-24 prospective validation run — the alarm the Watchtower register carries as entry 001. It is a real file, signed at the time, and it verifies in your browser or against the Apache-2.0 Rust core.
Certificate of monitoring
actuary-certificate-v4 · the actual artifact,rendered — recompute it
- Run
- real-validation-prospective-fixed-panel-2026-07-24
- Subject
- openai/gpt-4.1-nano · via OpenRouter
- Design frozen
- 2026-07-24 · 5-item maths panel · floor 0.70 · α 0.05
- Registered bound
- alarm within 19 blocks of onset · pre-registered separately
- Result
- alarm at panel 12 · log e 3.3999562471954308
- Period
- 2026-07-24 17:19:34 → 17:24:10 UTC
- Payload hash
- 35aefb0e387dd7f1784c8499d4dff5f99d45d562b926a539a3b4ee7fc08a58c8
- Signed
- Ed25519 · key 079ff1a1fc426e9570f896537edf2fe5612768f5e5ff8e05b1cbd2b299ca1f25
- Chain
- previous payload hash null — genesis
01
Download the artifacts
certificate.json (36 KB) and public-key.hex — the signed certificate and the public key it must verify against.
02
Build the verifier
The verifier is the actuary-cli crate, part of the Apache-2.0 Rust
core. While the repository is private during the design-partner pilot, a source
bundle goes out with every certificate we issue — and to anyone who asks:
request access. Nothing to install?
Verify it in your browser instead.
cargo build -p actuary-cli
03
Recompute
actuary verify certificate.json --pubkey public-key.hex
No database, no server, no network. A passing run ends with the reconstruction of the fixed-panel e-process declared valid for the frozen null hypothesis — the same computation the landing-page demo runs in your browser.
02 What it proves
Three checks, all offline.
01
Canonical form
The file is exact RFC 8785 canonical JSON. One byte different — a reordered key, a re-spaced number — and it is not the file that was signed.
02
Payload semantics
The statistical payload reconstructs: the frozen panel, the block means, the bet sequence and the evidence trajectory recompute from the carried inputs and match the persisted result. Issuance required the same replay to succeed.
03
Signature
The Ed25519 signature verifies against the pinned public key. The private half never leaves the signing host; the public half ships with the artifact.
03 Contents
Enough to rebuild the result from scratch.
- Design hash
- Pool and checker versions
- Ordered panel members with effective scores
- Every block mean and evidence hash
- Confidence-sequence and e-process state
- The alarm index
- Schema version
We say certificate, never certified. No accreditation body stands behind these files. The artifact stands behind itself.
04 The boundary
What a certificate does not do
It attests the computation, not the premise.
A certificate attests the computation, conditional on the statistical premise of the design — including score independence. It does not certify that premise from observed data.
Where the premise fails, the error control fails with it, and we publish the size of that failure rather than describing it: under block-5 dependence a SYNTHETIC 10,000-run stress test measured a false-alarm rate of 56.38% against a nominal 5%.
05 Get started
Certificates come from registered designs.
Panel, floor and α reviewed and frozen before the first observation — that review is what makes the published error rates apply to your monitor, and it is what the Registered plan buys.