Actuary
← All models

Model monitor

Meta Llama 3.3 70B Instruct

meta-llama/llama-3.3-70b-instruct · via openrouter

As of 2026-08-05: reference route · 94 complete panels attest measurement across 5 task families.

Served route, trailing 30 days: median latency 3.2 s · p95 27.5 s across 1093 probe calls · served by DeepInfra (1093), unrecorded (27). Observed at panel time — a few calls a day, not continuous uptime.

Reference route: this model is the co-probed confound control. It never opens a public incident — its record attests measurement, not verdicts.

Certified claim, per family: H0: E[panel_mean_t | prior completed panels] ≥ frozen_null_floor. Fixed panel composition does not assume or establish temporal independence. Recent panels below link to their hash-committed evidence.

One email when this model's record changes.

Task family

Structured output

Reference

Probing paused: nothing new lands on this family's record; everything already recorded below stands and stays citable.

Frozen null floor
0.700
Anytime level α
0.050
Completed panels
2
CS lower
0.000
CS upper
1.000
Panel-mean trajectory, confidence-sequence band, and frozen null floorPlot generated from complete fixed panels in the epoch. The band is anytime-valid under the signed conditional-mean claim; alarms come from the e-process. Panel mean Completed panel 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 1
Complete-panel means with anytime-valid confidence-sequence bounds. The red line marks the frozen null floor — printed before the data.
Panel record — 2 completed panels
Cycle Completed Member scores Mean Evidence
44 2026-08-05 14:01 UTC 1.001.001.000.381.00 0.875 41d713e42e7e…
43 2026-08-05 12:58 UTC 1.001.001.000.381.00 0.875 374ba772cdd5…

Newest first. A failed member scores 0 and stays on the record. Each evidence link opens the panel’s full hash-committed record.

Epoch & design record
Current epoch
6f065165-7fd0-4aff-bcd1-6c9b4c5a39aa
Opened
2026-08-05 12:54 UTC
Previous epoch
e1c112ed-f9b3-46bd-9d9c-abe46e3fc5d1
Transition
checker_refresh
Design hash
8a4f5431d708d308ccd859fc31d097a5db0297535ace2795cab39b5f087eb318
Panel hash
a37ad21aa4b8c3e16dbae958c68a70064a9d95487e131d832f2c601f7fdacf14
Pool hash
8e9496011afbb949e38b3facc664e6dd560f1c5d2155fd424fcb720d084c69ee
Panel size
5
Terminal failure
zero — a failed member scores 0 and stays on the record
Pool version
structured-output-v3
Checker version
structured_output-v2
Reference mean μ₀
0.700
Minimum effect δ
0.000
Evidence log e
-0.14 · max 0.00 · alarm at 3.00 (= ln 1/α)
Raw scores kept
10
Provider spend, this epoch
$0.0005278

The persisted monitor state is the authority a certificate replays byte-for-byte; the chart band above is a faithful replay of the same recorded panel means. Spend sums completed probe runs and includes reserved estimates where a run’s true cost was unrecoverable.

Task family

Extraction

Reference

Probing paused: nothing new lands on this family's record; everything already recorded below stands and stays citable.

Frozen null floor
0.700
Anytime level α
0.050
Completed panels
1
CS lower
0.000
CS upper
1.000
Panel-mean trajectory, confidence-sequence band, and frozen null floorPlot generated from complete fixed panels in the epoch. The band is anytime-valid under the signed conditional-mean claim; alarms come from the e-process. Panel mean Completed panel 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 1
Complete-panel means with anytime-valid confidence-sequence bounds. The red line marks the frozen null floor — printed before the data.
Panel record — 1 completed panels
Cycle Completed Member scores Mean Evidence
44 2026-08-05 13:59 UTC 0.000.000.000.001.00 0.200 8109f9c57ac3…

Newest first. A failed member scores 0 and stays on the record. Each evidence link opens the panel’s full hash-committed record.

Epoch & design record
Current epoch
a981fdd1-0fb2-48a0-8607-188573080370
Opened
2026-08-05 12:54 UTC
Previous epoch
df11941f-8eda-4631-ad5f-0d6f37170316
Transition
checker_refresh
Design hash
a2749265eac9731c94d1b8cada6fedc0e453bbc919053c455268b3a7eb248a61
Panel hash
1703e9221c9ce6ce1a9f69974cf0fd77056ac1ee4009dec47e3e6f23be2d4351
Pool hash
51802fc8964f7d9927bcabfae23b4bd2f0905e8977c9f8fb4ce50884ab0fbba6
Panel size
5
Terminal failure
zero — a failed member scores 0 and stays on the record
Pool version
extraction-v3
Checker version
extraction-v2
Reference mean μ₀
0.700
Minimum effect δ
0.000
Evidence log e
0.30 · max 0.30 · alarm at 3.00 (= ln 1/α)
Raw scores kept
5
Provider spend, this epoch
$0.0000988

The persisted monitor state is the authority a certificate replays byte-for-byte; the chart band above is a faithful replay of the same recorded panel means. Spend sums completed probe runs and includes reserved estimates where a run’s true cost was unrecoverable.

Task family

Instruction following

Reference

Probing paused: nothing new lands on this family's record; everything already recorded below stands and stays citable.

Frozen null floor
0.700
Anytime level α
0.050
Completed panels
45
CS lower
0.771
CS upper
1.000
Panel-mean trajectory, confidence-sequence band, and frozen null floorPlot generated from complete fixed panels in the epoch. The band is anytime-valid under the signed conditional-mean claim; alarms come from the e-process. Panel mean Completed panel 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 10 20 30 40
Complete-panel means with anytime-valid confidence-sequence bounds. The red line marks the frozen null floor — printed before the data.
Panel record — 45 completed panels
Cycle Completed Member scores Mean Evidence
44 2026-08-05 13:39 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 7d29bceaf6a1…
43 2026-08-05 12:36 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 10ce7123e314…
42 2026-08-05 11:35 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 2b20efbff22a…
41 2026-08-05 10:31 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 1c0a53decc04…
40 2026-08-05 09:31 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 93287e309d6d…
39 2026-08-05 08:26 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 f2832168059a…
38 2026-08-05 07:21 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 40bcfc51e3fa…
37 2026-08-05 06:22 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 dc1e56848feb…
36 2026-08-05 05:21 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 3e7e648497c5…
35 2026-08-05 04:16 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 cf5837cd64e1…
34 2026-08-05 03:15 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 b9a2bb4a05b7…
33 2026-08-05 02:14 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 de74c05949e6…
32 2026-08-05 01:14 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 7e1605e7b866…
31 2026-08-05 00:09 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 5f95417135e1…
30 2026-08-04 23:09 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 6140db2b4b77…
29 2026-08-04 22:08 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 7a87c2f7a0dd…
28 2026-08-04 21:07 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 1c7973135c2d…
27 2026-08-04 20:06 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 1b8cfe08fe2e…
26 2026-08-04 19:03 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 fa9e98734d59…
25 2026-08-04 17:59 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 92117427b468…
24 2026-08-04 16:55 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 7895029acd14…
23 2026-08-04 15:52 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 1a114d1d39a4…
22 2026-08-04 14:48 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 a60d438a040a…
21 2026-08-04 13:43 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 21c411f02494…
20 2026-08-04 12:42 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 d5094fec6939…
19 2026-08-04 11:41 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 3c083c3602ec…
18 2026-08-04 10:41 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 711155790563…
17 2026-08-04 09:36 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 ca1ec7d3069b…
16 2026-08-04 08:33 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 c30a7fe14f2a…
15 2026-08-04 07:30 UTC 1.001.000.830.861.00 0.938 e277af06d294…

Newest first; older panels are retained and replayable even where this table truncates. A failed member scores 0 and stays on the record. Each evidence link opens the panel’s full hash-committed record.

Epoch & design record
Current epoch
89818968-8251-40bc-a1e2-e9e22e05ba22
Opened
2026-08-03 16:27 UTC
Design hash
4f5cc6b9ff4ce026ccab93f5a3c8241f78eb005bc8b8068e4c701e9236504412
Panel hash
e7dfea1f343f7bf37e066a1117ca21f3438e804ad61437bf72d810640cef7e71
Pool hash
9c5d065322394a6fb18c6d7f90c5bb63f00781f3e4c4aaa663536f76bb8ba7f9
Panel size
5
Terminal failure
zero — a failed member scores 0 and stays on the record
Pool version
instruction_following-v3
Checker version
instruction_following-v1
Reference mean μ₀
0.700
Minimum effect δ
0.000
Evidence log e
-0.18 · max 0.00 · alarm at 3.00 (= ln 1/α)
Raw scores kept
225
Provider spend, this epoch
$0.0021852

The persisted monitor state is the authority a certificate replays byte-for-byte; the chart band above is a faithful replay of the same recorded panel means. Spend sums completed probe runs and includes reserved estimates where a run’s true cost was unrecoverable.

Task family

Code reasoning

Reference

Probing paused: nothing new lands on this family's record; everything already recorded below stands and stays citable.

Frozen null floor
0.700
Anytime level α
0.050
Completed panels
1
CS lower
0.000
CS upper
1.000
Panel-mean trajectory, confidence-sequence band, and frozen null floorPlot generated from complete fixed panels in the epoch. The band is anytime-valid under the signed conditional-mean claim; alarms come from the e-process. Panel mean Completed panel 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 1
Complete-panel means with anytime-valid confidence-sequence bounds. The red line marks the frozen null floor — printed before the data.
Panel record — 1 completed panels
Cycle Completed Member scores Mean Evidence
43 2026-08-05 13:28 UTC 0.000.000.000.000.00 0.000 25353d276e4b…

Newest first. A failed member scores 0 and stays on the record. Each evidence link opens the panel’s full hash-committed record.

Epoch & design record
Current epoch
d023180f-6535-4cc4-8b73-c6060ce2b87a
Opened
2026-08-05 12:54 UTC
Previous epoch
b1990d63-611b-4ef7-bc55-bcdde3700d10
Transition
checker_refresh
Design hash
bc3668bd52d9d48803b744c2c90f4ed816d7e394525b32b4219f6bab5c9c6df2
Panel hash
827de544c7641d140ac37e321bdb2578a41e291915f519183abbc5bd68153e81
Pool hash
cbfba66601ff51f43c83017d6de9e49988afcee72235f5dca89d705f4f8bb4cc
Panel size
5
Terminal failure
zero — a failed member scores 0 and stays on the record
Pool version
code_reasoning-v4
Checker version
code_reasoning-v2
Reference mean μ₀
0.700
Minimum effect δ
0.000
Evidence log e
0.39 · max 0.39 · alarm at 3.00 (= ln 1/α)
Raw scores kept
5
Provider spend, this epoch
$0.0001405

The persisted monitor state is the authority a certificate replays byte-for-byte; the chart band above is a faithful replay of the same recorded panel means. Spend sums completed probe runs and includes reserved estimates where a run’s true cost was unrecoverable.

Task family

Math

Reference alarm

Probing paused: nothing new lands on this family's record; everything already recorded below stands and stays citable.

Frozen null floor
0.700
Anytime level α
0.050
Completed panels
45
CS lower
0.313
CS upper
0.665
Panel-mean trajectory, confidence-sequence band, and frozen null floorPlot generated from complete fixed panels in the epoch. The band is anytime-valid under the signed conditional-mean claim; alarms come from the e-process. Panel mean Completed panel 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 10 20 30 40
Complete-panel means with anytime-valid confidence-sequence bounds. The red line marks the frozen null floor — printed before the data.
Panel record — 45 completed panels
Cycle Completed Member scores Mean Evidence
44 2026-08-05 13:34 UTC 0.001.001.000.001.00 0.600 cf81b11b576b…
43 2026-08-05 12:31 UTC 1.001.001.000.000.00 0.600 41b3d242b64b…
42 2026-08-05 11:33 UTC 0.001.001.000.000.00 0.400 58355bdcbf86…
41 2026-08-05 10:26 UTC 0.001.001.000.000.00 0.400 015e7cad5d3a…
40 2026-08-05 09:24 UTC 1.001.001.000.000.00 0.600 4c2cdbca08b1…
39 2026-08-05 08:18 UTC 0.001.001.000.000.00 0.400 3ce395388f9c…
38 2026-08-05 07:17 UTC 1.001.001.000.000.00 0.600 ba77f6387fe9…
37 2026-08-05 06:09 UTC 0.001.001.000.001.00 0.600 91d7273da096…
36 2026-08-05 05:08 UTC 0.001.001.000.001.00 0.600 fd557daaa93e…
35 2026-08-05 04:05 UTC 0.001.001.000.000.00 0.400 d566d81018c8…
34 2026-08-05 03:09 UTC 0.001.001.000.000.00 0.400 7b41923e3d5c…
33 2026-08-05 02:04 UTC 1.001.001.000.000.00 0.600 fa07c2b275cb…
32 2026-08-05 01:00 UTC 0.001.001.000.000.00 0.400 dfb6ce0ade30…
31 2026-08-04 23:55 UTC 0.001.001.000.001.00 0.600 56a153a80bd8…
30 2026-08-04 22:57 UTC 0.001.001.000.000.00 0.400 33fceb601499…
29 2026-08-04 21:55 UTC 0.001.001.000.000.00 0.400 be32a878eab5…
28 2026-08-04 20:53 UTC 0.001.001.000.001.00 0.600 cfc075909d3e…
27 2026-08-04 19:53 UTC 0.001.001.000.000.00 0.400 8252afb2bb61…
26 2026-08-04 18:50 UTC 0.001.001.000.000.00 0.400 71008a9fe829…
25 2026-08-04 17:47 UTC 0.001.001.000.001.00 0.600 58c0e9c783b1…
24 2026-08-04 16:47 UTC 1.001.001.000.000.00 0.600 9a73a223ebf5…
23 2026-08-04 15:44 UTC 1.001.001.000.000.00 0.600 678bf19f920f…
22 2026-08-04 14:40 UTC 0.001.001.000.001.00 0.600 29043431f148…
21 2026-08-04 13:39 UTC 0.001.001.000.000.00 0.400 cc84605e9f8d…
20 2026-08-04 12:37 UTC 0.001.001.000.000.00 0.400 79916c164139…
19 2026-08-04 11:36 UTC 1.001.001.000.001.00 0.800 32a02df21468…
18 2026-08-04 10:31 UTC 0.001.001.000.000.00 0.400 b110912623d6…
17 2026-08-04 09:27 UTC 0.001.001.000.000.00 0.400 362bf9bb0cbb…
16 2026-08-04 08:23 UTC 0.00 rate limited0.00 rate limited0.00 rate limited0.00 rate limited0.00 rate limited 0.000 3dd96fdaeda5…
15 2026-08-04 07:21 UTC 1.001.001.000.000.00 0.600 997b1a13aae2…

Newest first; older panels are retained and replayable even where this table truncates. A failed member scores 0 and stays on the record. Each evidence link opens the panel’s full hash-committed record.

Epoch & design record
Current epoch
5047ee24-a758-4ea2-94a2-7c08c42c4ae2
Opened
2026-08-03 16:27 UTC
Design hash
fdf94065c55c2ee7d86701efc50be0f5abdc5f02a236f6df52c2ac6f7db801eb
Panel hash
882f3932d07aeb85c4f6406a550d8ad14512e70d3df2432fe7aab03d0508bc75
Pool hash
7ed49fa9a63ba0e0907ff8326de00a843a926618f6d0dec40aa8e491d041e99b
Panel size
5
Terminal failure
zero — a failed member scores 0 and stays on the record
Pool version
math-v4
Checker version
math-v1
Reference mean μ₀
0.700
Minimum effect δ
0.000
Evidence log e
12.27 · max 12.27 · alarm at 3.00 (= ln 1/α)
Raw scores kept
213
Provider spend, this epoch
$0.0295865

The persisted monitor state is the authority a certificate replays byte-for-byte; the chart band above is a faithful replay of the same recorded panel means. Spend sums completed probe runs and includes reserved estimates where a run’s true cost was unrecoverable.