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Model monitor

Anthropic Claude Haiku 4.5

anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · via openrouter

Certified claim, per family: H0: E[panel_mean_t | prior completed panels] ≥ frozen_null_floor. Fixed panel composition does not assume or establish temporal independence. Recent panels below link to their hash-committed evidence.

Task family

Structured output

No alarm
Frozen null floor
0.700
Anytime level α
0.050
Completed panels
7
CS lower
0.000
CS upper
1.000
Panel-mean trajectory, confidence-sequence band, and frozen null floorPlot generated from complete fixed panels in the epoch. The band is anytime-valid under the signed conditional-mean claim; alarms come from the e-process. Panel mean Completed panel 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Complete-panel means with anytime-valid confidence-sequence bounds. The red line marks the frozen null floor — printed before the data.
Panel record — 7 completed panels
Cycle Completed Member scores Mean Evidence
41 2026-08-05 10:56 UTC 0.000.000.000.000.00 0.000 1eaf2cd39cbd…
40 2026-08-05 09:49 UTC 0.000.000.000.000.00 0.000 b3b6a8635fa5…
39 2026-08-05 08:47 UTC 0.000.000.000.000.00 0.000 6e98543f9886…
38 2026-08-05 07:42 UTC 0.000.000.000.000.00 0.000 8a704a02fd04…
37 2026-08-05 06:37 UTC 0.000.000.000.000.00 0.000 285e049fa02d…
36 2026-08-05 05:33 UTC 0.000.000.000.000.00 0.000 ddf3d067f7fd…
35 2026-08-05 04:32 UTC 0.000.000.000.000.00 0.000 fef81f0170a5…

Newest first. A failed member scores 0 and stays on the record. Each evidence link opens the panel’s full hash-committed record.

Epoch & design record
Current epoch
a5663808-6693-4906-a920-1b9931fa774f
Opened
2026-08-05 04:05 UTC
Previous epoch
dc58cfcb-ba1d-4ae8-8ccb-8cf46f26507d
Transition
operator_rebaseline_after_reference_repair
Design hash
251ec78748150632b474775f6c24f44183a634a960c4798ec4afd2f1150c4a1b
Panel hash
a37ad21aa4b8c3e16dbae958c68a70064a9d95487e131d832f2c601f7fdacf14
Pool hash
8e9496011afbb949e38b3facc664e6dd560f1c5d2155fd424fcb720d084c69ee
Panel size
5
Terminal failure
zero — a failed member scores 0 and stays on the record
Pool version
structured-output-v3
Checker version
structured_output-v1
Reference mean μ₀
0.700
Minimum effect δ
0.000
Evidence log e
4.40 · max 4.40 · alarm at 3.00 (= ln 1/α)
Raw scores kept
35
Provider spend, this epoch
$0.030821

The persisted monitor state is the authority a certificate replays byte-for-byte; the chart band above is a faithful replay of the same recorded panel means. Spend sums completed probe runs and includes reserved estimates where a run’s true cost was unrecoverable.

Task family

Extraction

No alarm
Frozen null floor
0.700
Anytime level α
0.050
Completed panels
7
CS lower
0.000
CS upper
1.000
Panel-mean trajectory, confidence-sequence band, and frozen null floorPlot generated from complete fixed panels in the epoch. The band is anytime-valid under the signed conditional-mean claim; alarms come from the e-process. Panel mean Completed panel 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Complete-panel means with anytime-valid confidence-sequence bounds. The red line marks the frozen null floor — printed before the data.
Panel record — 7 completed panels
Cycle Completed Member scores Mean Evidence
42 2026-08-05 11:31 UTC 0.000.000.000.000.00 0.000 06d99e39836d…
41 2026-08-05 10:24 UTC 0.000.000.000.000.00 0.000 c845d5944a6f…
40 2026-08-05 09:21 UTC 0.000.000.000.000.00 0.000 8c02cb120afd…
39 2026-08-05 08:17 UTC 0.000.000.000.000.00 0.000 f5704e076968…
38 2026-08-05 07:12 UTC 0.000.000.000.000.00 0.000 167eff237a3a…
37 2026-08-05 06:08 UTC 0.000.000.000.000.00 0.000 be0011621788…
36 2026-08-05 05:07 UTC 0.000.000.000.000.00 0.000 87be8fe15db6…

Newest first. A failed member scores 0 and stays on the record. Each evidence link opens the panel’s full hash-committed record.

Epoch & design record
Current epoch
f0baebaf-fc4c-43b4-bfdb-9c2167b72f23
Opened
2026-08-05 04:05 UTC
Previous epoch
4ebe780a-610b-4c49-83b1-871adcd0d368
Transition
operator_rebaseline_after_reference_repair
Design hash
e55ca7ee9c5ca6e56d79fad4592ca4081f9aec3b7db6858fbae175ff51707258
Panel hash
1703e9221c9ce6ce1a9f69974cf0fd77056ac1ee4009dec47e3e6f23be2d4351
Pool hash
51802fc8964f7d9927bcabfae23b4bd2f0905e8977c9f8fb4ce50884ab0fbba6
Panel size
5
Terminal failure
zero — a failed member scores 0 and stays on the record
Pool version
extraction-v3
Checker version
extraction-v1
Reference mean μ₀
0.700
Minimum effect δ
0.000
Evidence log e
4.40 · max 4.40 · alarm at 3.00 (= ln 1/α)
Raw scores kept
35
Provider spend, this epoch
$0.009226

The persisted monitor state is the authority a certificate replays byte-for-byte; the chart band above is a faithful replay of the same recorded panel means. Spend sums completed probe runs and includes reserved estimates where a run’s true cost was unrecoverable.

Task family

Instruction following

No alarm
Frozen null floor
0.700
Anytime level α
0.050
Completed panels
24
CS lower
0.602
CS upper
1.000
Panel-mean trajectory, confidence-sequence band, and frozen null floorPlot generated from complete fixed panels in the epoch. The band is anytime-valid under the signed conditional-mean claim; alarms come from the e-process. Panel mean Completed panel 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 5 10 15 20
Complete-panel means with anytime-valid confidence-sequence bounds. The red line marks the frozen null floor — printed before the data.
Panel record — 24 completed panels
Cycle Completed Member scores Mean Evidence
41 2026-08-05 10:32 UTC 1.001.000.831.000.83 0.933 1470bc870489…
40 2026-08-05 09:31 UTC 1.001.000.831.000.83 0.933 aedba4679d29…
39 2026-08-05 08:26 UTC 1.001.000.831.000.83 0.933 ccb227b47bc6…
38 2026-08-05 07:22 UTC 1.001.000.831.000.83 0.933 3398cb0351dd…
37 2026-08-05 06:23 UTC 1.001.000.831.000.83 0.933 4a3790e73c5f…
36 2026-08-05 05:22 UTC 1.001.000.831.000.83 0.933 7ea39a323f94…
35 2026-08-05 04:17 UTC 1.001.000.831.000.83 0.933 47a09a2fdc90…
34 2026-08-05 03:16 UTC 1.001.000.831.000.83 0.933 c1fefe6ca4c5…
33 2026-08-05 02:14 UTC 1.001.000.831.000.83 0.933 538ccaac9e46…
32 2026-08-05 01:15 UTC 1.001.000.831.000.83 0.933 c3cf98f7ada1…
31 2026-08-05 00:10 UTC 1.001.000.831.000.83 0.933 65ae3558dd1d…
30 2026-08-04 23:10 UTC 1.001.000.831.000.83 0.933 416e86339547…
29 2026-08-04 22:09 UTC 1.001.000.831.000.83 0.933 199bb0656c70…
28 2026-08-04 21:08 UTC 1.001.000.831.000.83 0.933 71873048482e…
27 2026-08-04 20:08 UTC 1.001.000.831.000.83 0.933 b6e02ab1b546…
26 2026-08-04 19:04 UTC 1.001.000.831.000.83 0.933 fa188fcdd451…
25 2026-08-04 18:01 UTC 1.000.00 provider error0.830.00 provider error0.83 0.533 0ea52da2f203…
24 2026-08-04 16:57 UTC 1.001.000.831.000.83 0.933 c62b4f063bc0…
23 2026-08-04 15:53 UTC 1.001.000.831.000.83 0.933 4ec6c837654f…
22 2026-08-04 14:49 UTC 1.001.000.831.000.83 0.933 98bab850cb01…
21 2026-08-04 13:44 UTC 1.001.000.831.000.83 0.933 4c7b15cf214f…
20 2026-08-04 12:42 UTC 1.001.000.831.000.83 0.933 c4174ccfe41d…
19 2026-08-04 11:42 UTC 1.001.000.831.000.83 0.933 f42e83f57570…
18 2026-08-04 10:41 UTC 1.001.000.831.000.83 0.933 5f581ff1746a…

Newest first. A failed member scores 0 and stays on the record. Each evidence link opens the panel’s full hash-committed record.

Epoch & design record
Current epoch
0efd1659-dd71-4a82-9fef-2924a092ca7b
Opened
2026-08-04 09:39 UTC
Design hash
4f5cc6b9ff4ce026ccab93f5a3c8241f78eb005bc8b8068e4c701e9236504412
Panel hash
e7dfea1f343f7bf37e066a1117ca21f3438e804ad61437bf72d810640cef7e71
Pool hash
9c5d065322394a6fb18c6d7f90c5bb63f00781f3e4c4aaa663536f76bb8ba7f9
Panel size
5
Terminal failure
zero — a failed member scores 0 and stays on the record
Pool version
instruction_following-v3
Checker version
instruction_following-v1
Reference mean μ₀
0.700
Minimum effect δ
0.000
Evidence log e
-0.18 · max 0.00 · alarm at 3.00 (= ln 1/α)
Raw scores kept
118
Provider spend, this epoch
$0.0352515

The persisted monitor state is the authority a certificate replays byte-for-byte; the chart band above is a faithful replay of the same recorded panel means. Spend sums completed probe runs and includes reserved estimates where a run’s true cost was unrecoverable.

Task family

Code reasoning

No alarm
Frozen null floor
0.700
Anytime level α
0.050
Completed panels
7
CS lower
0.000
CS upper
1.000
Panel-mean trajectory, confidence-sequence band, and frozen null floorPlot generated from complete fixed panels in the epoch. The band is anytime-valid under the signed conditional-mean claim; alarms come from the e-process. Panel mean Completed panel 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Complete-panel means with anytime-valid confidence-sequence bounds. The red line marks the frozen null floor — printed before the data.
Panel record — 7 completed panels
Cycle Completed Member scores Mean Evidence
41 2026-08-05 11:23 UTC 0.000.000.000.000.00 0.000 ef8991d1285d…
40 2026-08-05 10:19 UTC 0.000.000.000.000.00 0.000 701084d00daf…
39 2026-08-05 09:19 UTC 0.000.000.000.000.00 0.000 7cecbc2b706b…
38 2026-08-05 08:12 UTC 0.000.000.000.000.00 0.000 9a8d4075eb20…
37 2026-08-05 07:08 UTC 0.000.000.000.000.00 0.000 cc050c2efa3d…
36 2026-08-05 06:03 UTC 0.000.000.000.000.00 0.000 fdfe019ee5f7…
35 2026-08-05 05:02 UTC 0.000.000.000.000.00 0.000 cd050aa53924…

Newest first. A failed member scores 0 and stays on the record. Each evidence link opens the panel’s full hash-committed record.

Epoch & design record
Current epoch
b29c888a-76ad-4a80-946a-6b5bfc7cde69
Opened
2026-08-05 04:05 UTC
Previous epoch
0f8d4d31-ac61-4fac-8a6e-35c25e0342a9
Transition
operator_rebaseline_after_reference_repair
Design hash
bbc24079d942fddaf8dd5f81fb3bfc2a3fb81bc4d6433dc8cc7224205bdb08f6
Panel hash
827de544c7641d140ac37e321bdb2578a41e291915f519183abbc5bd68153e81
Pool hash
cbfba66601ff51f43c83017d6de9e49988afcee72235f5dca89d705f4f8bb4cc
Panel size
5
Terminal failure
zero — a failed member scores 0 and stays on the record
Pool version
code_reasoning-v4
Checker version
code_reasoning-v1
Reference mean μ₀
0.700
Minimum effect δ
0.000
Evidence log e
4.40 · max 4.40 · alarm at 3.00 (= ln 1/α)
Raw scores kept
35
Provider spend, this epoch
$0.013062

The persisted monitor state is the authority a certificate replays byte-for-byte; the chart band above is a faithful replay of the same recorded panel means. Spend sums completed probe runs and includes reserved estimates where a run’s true cost was unrecoverable.

Task family

Math

No alarm
Frozen null floor
0.700
Anytime level α
0.050
Completed panels
7
CS lower
0.000
CS upper
1.000
Panel-mean trajectory, confidence-sequence band, and frozen null floorPlot generated from complete fixed panels in the epoch. The band is anytime-valid under the signed conditional-mean claim; alarms come from the e-process. Panel mean Completed panel 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Complete-panel means with anytime-valid confidence-sequence bounds. The red line marks the frozen null floor — printed before the data.
Panel record — 7 completed panels
Cycle Completed Member scores Mean Evidence
41 2026-08-05 10:28 UTC 0.001.000.000.000.00 0.200 7d954edd963e…
40 2026-08-05 09:24 UTC 0.001.000.000.000.00 0.200 4e2bccccf047…
39 2026-08-05 08:18 UTC 0.001.000.000.000.00 0.200 4c1964a261be…
38 2026-08-05 07:17 UTC 0.001.000.000.000.00 0.200 e17662beb19e…
37 2026-08-05 06:10 UTC 0.001.000.000.000.00 0.200 e943fa4efb44…
36 2026-08-05 05:09 UTC 0.001.000.000.000.00 0.200 c069a615488a…
35 2026-08-05 04:06 UTC 0.001.000.000.000.00 0.200 1b68fcce7d5c…

Newest first. A failed member scores 0 and stays on the record. Each evidence link opens the panel’s full hash-committed record.

Epoch & design record
Current epoch
5cb87853-5444-49c7-8cea-4945a6036d16
Opened
2026-08-05 04:05 UTC
Previous epoch
2ac265b1-2400-411f-834e-7102275e3a8e
Transition
operator_rebaseline_after_reference_repair
Design hash
fdf94065c55c2ee7d86701efc50be0f5abdc5f02a236f6df52c2ac6f7db801eb
Panel hash
882f3932d07aeb85c4f6406a550d8ad14512e70d3df2432fe7aab03d0508bc75
Pool hash
7ed49fa9a63ba0e0907ff8326de00a843a926618f6d0dec40aa8e491d041e99b
Panel size
5
Terminal failure
zero — a failed member scores 0 and stays on the record
Pool version
math-v4
Checker version
math-v1
Reference mean μ₀
0.700
Minimum effect δ
0.000
Evidence log e
3.82 · max 3.82 · alarm at 3.00 (= ln 1/α)
Raw scores kept
35
Provider spend, this epoch
$0.006673

The persisted monitor state is the authority a certificate replays byte-for-byte; the chart band above is a faithful replay of the same recorded panel means. Spend sums completed probe runs and includes reserved estimates where a run’s true cost was unrecoverable.