Model monitor
Anthropic Claude Haiku 4.5
anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · via openrouter
Certified claim, per family: H0: E[panel_mean_t | prior completed panels] ≥ frozen_null_floor. Fixed panel composition does not assume or establish temporal independence. Recent panels below link to their hash-committed evidence.
Task family
Structured output
- Frozen null floor
- 0.700
- Anytime level α
- 0.050
- Completed panels
- 7
- CS lower
- 0.000
- CS upper
- 1.000
Panel record — 7 completed panels
| Cycle | Completed | Member scores | Mean | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 2026-08-05 10:56 UTC | 0.000.000.000.000.00 | 0.000 | 1eaf2cd39cbd… |
| 40 | 2026-08-05 09:49 UTC | 0.000.000.000.000.00 | 0.000 | b3b6a8635fa5… |
| 39 | 2026-08-05 08:47 UTC | 0.000.000.000.000.00 | 0.000 | 6e98543f9886… |
| 38 | 2026-08-05 07:42 UTC | 0.000.000.000.000.00 | 0.000 | 8a704a02fd04… |
| 37 | 2026-08-05 06:37 UTC | 0.000.000.000.000.00 | 0.000 | 285e049fa02d… |
| 36 | 2026-08-05 05:33 UTC | 0.000.000.000.000.00 | 0.000 | ddf3d067f7fd… |
| 35 | 2026-08-05 04:32 UTC | 0.000.000.000.000.00 | 0.000 | fef81f0170a5… |
Newest first. A failed member scores 0 and stays on the record. Each evidence link opens the panel’s full hash-committed record.
Epoch & design record
- Current epoch
a5663808-6693-4906-a920-1b9931fa774f- Opened
- 2026-08-05 04:05 UTC
- Previous epoch
dc58cfcb-ba1d-4ae8-8ccb-8cf46f26507d- Transition
- operator_rebaseline_after_reference_repair
- Design hash
251ec78748150632b474775f6c24f44183a634a960c4798ec4afd2f1150c4a1b- Panel hash
a37ad21aa4b8c3e16dbae958c68a70064a9d95487e131d832f2c601f7fdacf14- Pool hash
8e9496011afbb949e38b3facc664e6dd560f1c5d2155fd424fcb720d084c69ee- Panel size
- 5
- Terminal failure
- zero — a failed member scores 0 and stays on the record
- Pool version
structured-output-v3- Checker version
structured_output-v1- Reference mean μ₀
- 0.700
- Minimum effect δ
- 0.000
- Evidence log e
- 4.40 · max 4.40 · alarm at 3.00 (= ln 1/α)
- Raw scores kept
- 35
- Provider spend, this epoch
- $0.030821
The persisted monitor state is the authority a certificate replays byte-for-byte; the chart band above is a faithful replay of the same recorded panel means. Spend sums completed probe runs and includes reserved estimates where a run’s true cost was unrecoverable.
Task family
Extraction
- Frozen null floor
- 0.700
- Anytime level α
- 0.050
- Completed panels
- 7
- CS lower
- 0.000
- CS upper
- 1.000
Panel record — 7 completed panels
| Cycle | Completed | Member scores | Mean | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 2026-08-05 11:31 UTC | 0.000.000.000.000.00 | 0.000 | 06d99e39836d… |
| 41 | 2026-08-05 10:24 UTC | 0.000.000.000.000.00 | 0.000 | c845d5944a6f… |
| 40 | 2026-08-05 09:21 UTC | 0.000.000.000.000.00 | 0.000 | 8c02cb120afd… |
| 39 | 2026-08-05 08:17 UTC | 0.000.000.000.000.00 | 0.000 | f5704e076968… |
| 38 | 2026-08-05 07:12 UTC | 0.000.000.000.000.00 | 0.000 | 167eff237a3a… |
| 37 | 2026-08-05 06:08 UTC | 0.000.000.000.000.00 | 0.000 | be0011621788… |
| 36 | 2026-08-05 05:07 UTC | 0.000.000.000.000.00 | 0.000 | 87be8fe15db6… |
Newest first. A failed member scores 0 and stays on the record. Each evidence link opens the panel’s full hash-committed record.
Epoch & design record
- Current epoch
f0baebaf-fc4c-43b4-bfdb-9c2167b72f23- Opened
- 2026-08-05 04:05 UTC
- Previous epoch
4ebe780a-610b-4c49-83b1-871adcd0d368- Transition
- operator_rebaseline_after_reference_repair
- Design hash
e55ca7ee9c5ca6e56d79fad4592ca4081f9aec3b7db6858fbae175ff51707258- Panel hash
1703e9221c9ce6ce1a9f69974cf0fd77056ac1ee4009dec47e3e6f23be2d4351- Pool hash
51802fc8964f7d9927bcabfae23b4bd2f0905e8977c9f8fb4ce50884ab0fbba6- Panel size
- 5
- Terminal failure
- zero — a failed member scores 0 and stays on the record
- Pool version
extraction-v3- Checker version
extraction-v1- Reference mean μ₀
- 0.700
- Minimum effect δ
- 0.000
- Evidence log e
- 4.40 · max 4.40 · alarm at 3.00 (= ln 1/α)
- Raw scores kept
- 35
- Provider spend, this epoch
- $0.009226
The persisted monitor state is the authority a certificate replays byte-for-byte; the chart band above is a faithful replay of the same recorded panel means. Spend sums completed probe runs and includes reserved estimates where a run’s true cost was unrecoverable.
Task family
Instruction following
- Frozen null floor
- 0.700
- Anytime level α
- 0.050
- Completed panels
- 24
- CS lower
- 0.602
- CS upper
- 1.000
Panel record — 24 completed panels
| Cycle | Completed | Member scores | Mean | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 2026-08-05 10:32 UTC | 1.001.000.831.000.83 | 0.933 | 1470bc870489… |
| 40 | 2026-08-05 09:31 UTC | 1.001.000.831.000.83 | 0.933 | aedba4679d29… |
| 39 | 2026-08-05 08:26 UTC | 1.001.000.831.000.83 | 0.933 | ccb227b47bc6… |
| 38 | 2026-08-05 07:22 UTC | 1.001.000.831.000.83 | 0.933 | 3398cb0351dd… |
| 37 | 2026-08-05 06:23 UTC | 1.001.000.831.000.83 | 0.933 | 4a3790e73c5f… |
| 36 | 2026-08-05 05:22 UTC | 1.001.000.831.000.83 | 0.933 | 7ea39a323f94… |
| 35 | 2026-08-05 04:17 UTC | 1.001.000.831.000.83 | 0.933 | 47a09a2fdc90… |
| 34 | 2026-08-05 03:16 UTC | 1.001.000.831.000.83 | 0.933 | c1fefe6ca4c5… |
| 33 | 2026-08-05 02:14 UTC | 1.001.000.831.000.83 | 0.933 | 538ccaac9e46… |
| 32 | 2026-08-05 01:15 UTC | 1.001.000.831.000.83 | 0.933 | c3cf98f7ada1… |
| 31 | 2026-08-05 00:10 UTC | 1.001.000.831.000.83 | 0.933 | 65ae3558dd1d… |
| 30 | 2026-08-04 23:10 UTC | 1.001.000.831.000.83 | 0.933 | 416e86339547… |
| 29 | 2026-08-04 22:09 UTC | 1.001.000.831.000.83 | 0.933 | 199bb0656c70… |
| 28 | 2026-08-04 21:08 UTC | 1.001.000.831.000.83 | 0.933 | 71873048482e… |
| 27 | 2026-08-04 20:08 UTC | 1.001.000.831.000.83 | 0.933 | b6e02ab1b546… |
| 26 | 2026-08-04 19:04 UTC | 1.001.000.831.000.83 | 0.933 | fa188fcdd451… |
| 25 | 2026-08-04 18:01 UTC | 1.000.00 provider error0.830.00 provider error0.83 | 0.533 | 0ea52da2f203… |
| 24 | 2026-08-04 16:57 UTC | 1.001.000.831.000.83 | 0.933 | c62b4f063bc0… |
| 23 | 2026-08-04 15:53 UTC | 1.001.000.831.000.83 | 0.933 | 4ec6c837654f… |
| 22 | 2026-08-04 14:49 UTC | 1.001.000.831.000.83 | 0.933 | 98bab850cb01… |
| 21 | 2026-08-04 13:44 UTC | 1.001.000.831.000.83 | 0.933 | 4c7b15cf214f… |
| 20 | 2026-08-04 12:42 UTC | 1.001.000.831.000.83 | 0.933 | c4174ccfe41d… |
| 19 | 2026-08-04 11:42 UTC | 1.001.000.831.000.83 | 0.933 | f42e83f57570… |
| 18 | 2026-08-04 10:41 UTC | 1.001.000.831.000.83 | 0.933 | 5f581ff1746a… |
Newest first. A failed member scores 0 and stays on the record. Each evidence link opens the panel’s full hash-committed record.
Epoch & design record
- Current epoch
0efd1659-dd71-4a82-9fef-2924a092ca7b- Opened
- 2026-08-04 09:39 UTC
- Design hash
4f5cc6b9ff4ce026ccab93f5a3c8241f78eb005bc8b8068e4c701e9236504412- Panel hash
e7dfea1f343f7bf37e066a1117ca21f3438e804ad61437bf72d810640cef7e71- Pool hash
9c5d065322394a6fb18c6d7f90c5bb63f00781f3e4c4aaa663536f76bb8ba7f9- Panel size
- 5
- Terminal failure
- zero — a failed member scores 0 and stays on the record
- Pool version
instruction_following-v3- Checker version
instruction_following-v1- Reference mean μ₀
- 0.700
- Minimum effect δ
- 0.000
- Evidence log e
- -0.18 · max 0.00 · alarm at 3.00 (= ln 1/α)
- Raw scores kept
- 118
- Provider spend, this epoch
- $0.0352515
The persisted monitor state is the authority a certificate replays byte-for-byte; the chart band above is a faithful replay of the same recorded panel means. Spend sums completed probe runs and includes reserved estimates where a run’s true cost was unrecoverable.
Task family
Code reasoning
- Frozen null floor
- 0.700
- Anytime level α
- 0.050
- Completed panels
- 7
- CS lower
- 0.000
- CS upper
- 1.000
Panel record — 7 completed panels
| Cycle | Completed | Member scores | Mean | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 2026-08-05 11:23 UTC | 0.000.000.000.000.00 | 0.000 | ef8991d1285d… |
| 40 | 2026-08-05 10:19 UTC | 0.000.000.000.000.00 | 0.000 | 701084d00daf… |
| 39 | 2026-08-05 09:19 UTC | 0.000.000.000.000.00 | 0.000 | 7cecbc2b706b… |
| 38 | 2026-08-05 08:12 UTC | 0.000.000.000.000.00 | 0.000 | 9a8d4075eb20… |
| 37 | 2026-08-05 07:08 UTC | 0.000.000.000.000.00 | 0.000 | cc050c2efa3d… |
| 36 | 2026-08-05 06:03 UTC | 0.000.000.000.000.00 | 0.000 | fdfe019ee5f7… |
| 35 | 2026-08-05 05:02 UTC | 0.000.000.000.000.00 | 0.000 | cd050aa53924… |
Newest first. A failed member scores 0 and stays on the record. Each evidence link opens the panel’s full hash-committed record.
Epoch & design record
- Current epoch
b29c888a-76ad-4a80-946a-6b5bfc7cde69- Opened
- 2026-08-05 04:05 UTC
- Previous epoch
0f8d4d31-ac61-4fac-8a6e-35c25e0342a9- Transition
- operator_rebaseline_after_reference_repair
- Design hash
bbc24079d942fddaf8dd5f81fb3bfc2a3fb81bc4d6433dc8cc7224205bdb08f6- Panel hash
827de544c7641d140ac37e321bdb2578a41e291915f519183abbc5bd68153e81- Pool hash
cbfba66601ff51f43c83017d6de9e49988afcee72235f5dca89d705f4f8bb4cc- Panel size
- 5
- Terminal failure
- zero — a failed member scores 0 and stays on the record
- Pool version
code_reasoning-v4- Checker version
code_reasoning-v1- Reference mean μ₀
- 0.700
- Minimum effect δ
- 0.000
- Evidence log e
- 4.40 · max 4.40 · alarm at 3.00 (= ln 1/α)
- Raw scores kept
- 35
- Provider spend, this epoch
- $0.013062
The persisted monitor state is the authority a certificate replays byte-for-byte; the chart band above is a faithful replay of the same recorded panel means. Spend sums completed probe runs and includes reserved estimates where a run’s true cost was unrecoverable.
Task family
Math
- Frozen null floor
- 0.700
- Anytime level α
- 0.050
- Completed panels
- 7
- CS lower
- 0.000
- CS upper
- 1.000
Panel record — 7 completed panels
| Cycle | Completed | Member scores | Mean | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 2026-08-05 10:28 UTC | 0.001.000.000.000.00 | 0.200 | 7d954edd963e… |
| 40 | 2026-08-05 09:24 UTC | 0.001.000.000.000.00 | 0.200 | 4e2bccccf047… |
| 39 | 2026-08-05 08:18 UTC | 0.001.000.000.000.00 | 0.200 | 4c1964a261be… |
| 38 | 2026-08-05 07:17 UTC | 0.001.000.000.000.00 | 0.200 | e17662beb19e… |
| 37 | 2026-08-05 06:10 UTC | 0.001.000.000.000.00 | 0.200 | e943fa4efb44… |
| 36 | 2026-08-05 05:09 UTC | 0.001.000.000.000.00 | 0.200 | c069a615488a… |
| 35 | 2026-08-05 04:06 UTC | 0.001.000.000.000.00 | 0.200 | 1b68fcce7d5c… |
Newest first. A failed member scores 0 and stays on the record. Each evidence link opens the panel’s full hash-committed record.
Epoch & design record
- Current epoch
5cb87853-5444-49c7-8cea-4945a6036d16- Opened
- 2026-08-05 04:05 UTC
- Previous epoch
2ac265b1-2400-411f-834e-7102275e3a8e- Transition
- operator_rebaseline_after_reference_repair
- Design hash
fdf94065c55c2ee7d86701efc50be0f5abdc5f02a236f6df52c2ac6f7db801eb- Panel hash
882f3932d07aeb85c4f6406a550d8ad14512e70d3df2432fe7aab03d0508bc75- Pool hash
7ed49fa9a63ba0e0907ff8326de00a843a926618f6d0dec40aa8e491d041e99b- Panel size
- 5
- Terminal failure
- zero — a failed member scores 0 and stays on the record
- Pool version
math-v4- Checker version
math-v1- Reference mean μ₀
- 0.700
- Minimum effect δ
- 0.000
- Evidence log e
- 3.82 · max 3.82 · alarm at 3.00 (= ln 1/α)
- Raw scores kept
- 35
- Provider spend, this epoch
- $0.006673
The persisted monitor state is the authority a certificate replays byte-for-byte; the chart band above is a faithful replay of the same recorded panel means. Spend sums completed probe runs and includes reserved estimates where a run’s true cost was unrecoverable.